The next decade will mark a fundamental shift in the industry as data services become the dominant growth engine, driving revenues to nearly $100 billion by 2035.
Data services are expected to increase their share of total satellite services revenues from 26 per cent to 68 per cent over the decade, as demand for connectivity accelerates across consumer, defence, government and enterprise markets.
While video remains the industry’s largest revenue segment today, future growth will be driven by connectivity.
Consumer broadband, MILSATCOM and enterprise networks are forecast to lead market expansion, adding $22.6 billion, $19.2 billion, and $17.2 billion in revenues, respectively, over the next decade.
MILSATCOM is emerging as a particularly important growth engine, fuelled by rising defence spending and broader adoption of SATCOM-enabled operational concepts across military forces.
At the same time, NGSO constellations are becoming an increasingly important source of resilient capacity for government and defence users.
“Satellite connectivity is moving firmly into the mainstream,” said Dimitri Buchs, project manager and editor of the report.
“The rapid expansion of NGSO capacity, declining bandwidth costs, and growing demand for resilient, always-available connectivity are fundamentally changing where and how satellite communications compete.”
The satellite capacity market is forecast to exceed $46 billion by 2035, more than tripling from 2025 levels.
Video distribution, the largest capacity segment in 2025, is expected to account for just 3 per cent of capacity revenues by 2035. Consumer broadband and MILSATCOM, meanwhile, are projected to represent more than half of total capacity revenues.
Declining bandwidth costs, driven by HTS systems and a growing number of NGSO projects, are accelerating satellite connectivity’s expansion into mass-market applications.
Providers such as Starlink are increasingly competing with terrestrial broadband on price, strengthening satellite broadband’s position as a viable alternative to fibre and wireless connectivity in a growing range of markets.
The transformation is also reshaping the role of GEO operators. Following a low of six commercial GEO orders in 2024, the market rebounded to 10 orders in 2025, with another 14 recorded by mid-September 2026.
The renewed activity reflects evolving multi-orbit strategies and continued demand for GEO capabilities alongside rapidly expanding NGSO systems.
“This is not a return to the traditional GEO model,” Buchs said.
“Software-defined satellites, more flexible commercial models, sovereign requirements and growing multi-orbit strategies are redefining GEO’s role.
“The future of satellite communications will not be GEO or NGSO – it will increasingly be an ecosystem in which each architecture serves distinct and complementary requirements.”
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